The Inevitable
Sadly, Russrt spent too much time asking the Israeli ambassador about today’s bombings and radicalizing everyone in Lebanon. Sadly, it doesn’t matter if Hezbo’s support grows in the region or not. There will always be enough support and enough of a network to do what someone is going to do (probably from Lebanon) someday. Sadly a nuclear device will be produced (probably in Iran) delivered to a group in Lebanon with no real zip code – they may be a “party” like Hezbo, but is anyone going to argue that the real thrust of such groups is underground, and not on the floor of a legislative building…
Sadly, there will be those in Damascus who will retain connections/influence w/in Lebanon so all parties dedicated to the “disappearance” of Israel will have a way of delivering their weapon and Iran and Syria will have something of a buffer zone for their governments.
Doesn’t everyone see this?
I’m glad Russert had T Friedman on after his most recent column…
…although the beginning of the column made him sound like Dr. fucking Phil.
On the up side, he called g bushy radioactive.
I like Friedman’s image of the Sunni Syrians as riding in the back of a car driven by two Shi’a extremists (the leaders of Hez and Iran)…and the car has no brakes. He’s a great writer, and sounds like a great man but deep down he’s guided by a bullshit notion that Arab democracy in Lebanon needs special protection and if we could only show those on the Arab street that their real models ought to be prosperous Muslims in India rather than extremist leaders who continue to call for the elimination of Israel, stand up to the Israeli army and ultimately fail…
…if we could only do this, things would be better. We could do what one Syrian writer expressed to him, a desire to show his fellows how Arab culture can be mixed with modernity.
Maybe he can say: “At least I tried.”
Maybe the Israeli army, when this operation ends and enough of Hez is in tact (or another group takes it’s place) to continue planning to execute the nuclear option against an Israeli city, they can say: “At least we tried.”
Maybe the United States can say: “At least we tried to show the region we were serious in enforcing UN weapons agreements with our whatever we thought we were doing in Irock.”
Hez or some group like it will one day succeed in delivering a nuclear weapon or a dirty bomb to an Israeli city, but they will not accomplish their goal of making Israel disappear, and they will say “At least we tried.”
I think if all parties concerned thought about it in these terms they would see much of what I am saying here.
…and they still might go ahead with these things anyway.
That’s why it is called the inevitable.
Sadly, there will be those in Damascus who will retain connections/influence w/in Lebanon so all parties dedicated to the “disappearance” of Israel will have a way of delivering their weapon and Iran and Syria will have something of a buffer zone for their governments.
Doesn’t everyone see this?
I’m glad Russert had T Friedman on after his most recent column…
…although the beginning of the column made him sound like Dr. fucking Phil.
On the up side, he called g bushy radioactive.
I like Friedman’s image of the Sunni Syrians as riding in the back of a car driven by two Shi’a extremists (the leaders of Hez and Iran)…and the car has no brakes. He’s a great writer, and sounds like a great man but deep down he’s guided by a bullshit notion that Arab democracy in Lebanon needs special protection and if we could only show those on the Arab street that their real models ought to be prosperous Muslims in India rather than extremist leaders who continue to call for the elimination of Israel, stand up to the Israeli army and ultimately fail…
…if we could only do this, things would be better. We could do what one Syrian writer expressed to him, a desire to show his fellows how Arab culture can be mixed with modernity.
Maybe he can say: “At least I tried.”
Maybe the Israeli army, when this operation ends and enough of Hez is in tact (or another group takes it’s place) to continue planning to execute the nuclear option against an Israeli city, they can say: “At least we tried.”
Maybe the United States can say: “At least we tried to show the region we were serious in enforcing UN weapons agreements with our whatever we thought we were doing in Irock.”
Hez or some group like it will one day succeed in delivering a nuclear weapon or a dirty bomb to an Israeli city, but they will not accomplish their goal of making Israel disappear, and they will say “At least we tried.”
I think if all parties concerned thought about it in these terms they would see much of what I am saying here.
…and they still might go ahead with these things anyway.
That’s why it is called the inevitable.
posted by edP | 8:14 AM
4 Comments:
There wont be any nukes. It's MAD all over again. Everyone knows Izzy has nuclear capabilities and won't hesitate to annihilate Syria and Iran. Plus there's the issue of radioactive fallout. With Israel only 20 miles wide, such an action would hurt an equal # of Arabs. This whole mess doesn't have legs, and for that Israel gets credit. By forging peace agreements with moderate states like Egypt, Jordan, and S.A., they've succeeded blunting the reaction of the Arabs. And let's face it, Nasrallah overplayed his hand by starting some shit and thinking the whole Arab league would have his back.
Sultan you said:
"There wont be any nukes. It's MAD all over again."
I hope you are right but am fairly sure that you are wrong. The whole MAD thing works on a rational actor model...what does it mean that there are factions who will view a Hezbolla loss as a win in that they stood up to Izzy and went down with guns blazing and flags flying
re: Izzz nuke retaliation against Syria and Iran...what if the bomb comes from a rocket launched in Lebanon...sure we can connect the dots to see where it comes from - won't the US be forced to step in and prevent nuclear retaliation...won't Europe and America be able to agree on at least this...or won't the traditional balancing of power be thrown into such chaos the wise will be stupefied?
I hope you're right. Tom Friedman believes that forces on all sides of this conflict can be treated as rational actors. I'm not sure I'm as optimistic as you guys.
Your statement about Hez's leader was right on until yesterday's attacks. Now the moderate/sunni/more modern leadership of the states you mentioned are being put under increasing pressure by the talk on the Arab street that the Izzies are absolutely bloodthirsty...Nasrallah's gonna get more second winds as civilian casualties grow.
I've had the same argument with Sultano.
I don't get my nose out of joint over North Korea for that very reason. Illin' Kim Jong acts nuts but that's his mad dog strategy--he is a dictator, he wants to stay in power.
Ironically (or maybe not) Saddam was the same way--a secular strongman who just wanted to get along, whilst ruthlessly subduing the region. Which is sort of one reason the neocon hardon for him was such a kooky boondoggle. Since he wasn't able to trample Iran he outlived his usefulness.
I wish it were the simpler eighties Lebanon where they just threw rocks. I was like, "Hey, Izzy! Stop blowing up there city and they won't have any more rocks." Oldest joke ever.
Now it's rocket propelled grenades and dirty bombs. I have been waiting for Israel to lay waste to Syria and Iran for a long friggin' time. That whole place is gonna be a crater whether we do it or the Jews. Syria is gonna come down. With the fundamentalist movement in Turkey gaining strength, the secularist folks in Istanbul are hoping somebody pulls the trigger soon. Ataturk didn't reform that place to please the Greeks you know.
The way I see it, we can either get everybody who isn't wanted by their neighbors the fuck out of the hood or we tell Israel to take 'em all to the cleaners. I think the Saudis will stay out of it and Iraq can't get involved. Turkey won't help because (secular or not) they wouldn't want to be seen as siding with the west when the majority of the population is muslim.
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